President Trump’s approval among black voters hit a record-high 40 percent a week ahead of the midterm elections, according to a Rasmussen survey.
Typically, the Gateway Pundit pointed out, Democrats need about 85 percent of the African-American vote to win national elections.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen found President Trump’s approval rating hit 50 percent on Monday, 6 points higher than Barack Obama at the same time in his presidency. It was down to 49 percent on Wednesday, according to the daily tracking poll.
Many Republicans, however, are recalling that Silver and nearly every other political prognosticator got it wrong in 2016. Political consultant Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly worked in the Trump White House, is one who believes Democrats once again are “driving away” the blue collar voters that put Trump over the top two years ago.
He wrote in a Washington Times op-ed Tuesday that in midterm races across the country, the Democrats “are back calling Trump voters racists, this time for their stance of strong border security.”
“As the caravan of 7,000 migrants moves ever closer to an illegal border crossing into our southern states, dog whistles have become blatant slurs,” he wrote, calling “this slanderous language” an “insult to the ‘blue collar’ voters around the country.”
“And once again, Democratic candidates are driving away the very people who were once the lifeblood of their party,” he said.
Scaramucci conceded that Democrats could regain control of the House, but he said “it seems clear now that the media-made narrative of a ‘blue wave’ is largely a myth; and, if enough Republican incumbents can hold on and the party manages to retain control of the House, Americans may yet be in for a repeat of President Trump’s historic and shocking victory in 2016.”
On Wednesday, President Trump launched an eight-state campaign blitz to support Republicans in key Senate battles in Indiana, Missouri and Florida and candidates for governor in Georgia and Ohio.
Republicans hold a 23-seat majority in the 435-seat House and a two-seat majority in the 100-seat Senate. But the GOP is more vulnerable in the House, where its candidates are defending 41 seats without an incumbent on the ballot, the most since 1930, Reuters points out.
In the Senate, Democrats, who are focusing their messaging on protecting Obamacare and maintaining coverage of pre-existing conditions, are defending 10 seats in states that Trump won in 2016.
Republicans, in an election in which the party in the White House usually loses ground, have seen strong turnout across the nation, boosted in part by Democrats’ treatment of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and immigration issues.
Marc Lotter, a former top aide to Vice President Mike Pence, told Reuters he believes Democrats are misreading the electorate in many areas, especially in Senate races.
“You have seen a big shift toward Republicans in many states that the president carried,” he said.
Democrats are focused on protecting seats in West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri.
The Los Angeles Times said Democrats are “pinning their hopes on white, educated, independent or Republican-leaning women who have turned on Trump and could be encouraged to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate this year.”
In Florida, Democrats have pulled ahead in the state’s U.S. Senate and governor races, a new Reuters opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is leading Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott by 5 percentage points among likely voters, according to the Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll.
Democrat Andrew Gillum, the Tallahassee mayor, who could become Florida’s first black governor had the support of 50 percent of likely voters in a poll last month, compared to 44 percent for Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis.
In Texas, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by just 3.6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.
A number of polls show Cruz’s lead over O’Rourke narrowing.
In Minnesota, a Somali refugee running as a Democrat is heavily favored to defeat her Republican opponent for the Minnesota House seat held by Rep. Keith Ellison, Reuters reported.
Ilhan Omar, who fled civil war in Somalia and spent four years in a refugee camp, said she is running for office to make sure fewer people have to struggle with the daily necessities of life.
She said that when she arrived in the United States as a refugee with her family at age 12, she did not expect “to go to school with kids who were worried about food as much as I was worried about it in a refugee camp.”
She favors universal healthcare, free college tuition and more public housing, which are popular positions in a district that has not elected a Republican to the House since 1962.
Pelosi: We’ll bring unity if we win
In an appearance on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., boasted that Democrats are the party that treats opposing ideas respectfully then proceeded to attack Trump’s border policy as “taking babies out of the arms of their moms, putting them in cages.”
Pelosi, who likely would become speaker of the House once again if Democrats regain control, was asked about “lowering the temperature of political discourse.”
“There has been a lot of talk lately about lowering the temperature of political discourse,” Colbert said. “Have you — have you seen evidence of that?”
Pelosi replied: “Well, I think when we win, you will see evidence of that. Because when we do win, we will have, as we open the new Congress, we will honor the vows of our founders. E pluribus unum, from many one.”
“It’s OK to disagree in the marketplace of ideas,” she continued. “That’s exciting. But it is also important to find solutions that unify and not divide. And that’s what makes a big difference between Democrats and what’s in the White House now.”